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The quantum threat

Shor's algorithm breaks RSA and ECC

The security of RSA, Diffie-Hellman and elliptic-curve cryptography (ECC) rests on problems that our classical computers cannot solve quickly. A large enough quantum computer changes everything.

Shor's algorithm

In 1994, Peter Shor published an algorithm that, on a quantum computer, factors a large number and solves the discrete logarithm in polynomial time.

This is a breakthrough. The best classical factoring algorithms are sub-exponential: doubling the key size makes the problem astronomically harder. Shor, on the other hand, brings these problems to their knees in a time that grows only as a polynomial in the size of the number.

Yet all of the asymmetric cryptography deployed today rests precisely on these two problems:

  • RSA relies on the difficulty of factoring n = p × q;
  • Diffie-Hellman and ECC rely on the difficulty of the discrete logarithm.

A large enough fault-tolerant quantum computer would break them all.

What survives: symmetric cryptography

Symmetric cryptography (AES) and hash functions (SHA-2, SHA-3) are not broken, only weakened.

Grover's algorithm (1996) speeds up a brute-force search: it finds a key among N possibilities in roughly sqrt(N) attempts instead of N. This halves the effective security in bits.

Sécurité effective face à Grover
--------------------------------
AES-128  ->  ~64 bits  (jugé insuffisant)
AES-256  -> ~128 bits  (jugé sûr)

The fix is simple and well known: double the key size. Moving from AES-128 to AES-256 restores a comfortable margin. Grover offers only a quadratic gain, not an exponential one: it does not undermine the principle of symmetric cryptography.

The table that sums up the threat

Primitive Type Quantum attack Verdict
RSA asymmetric Shor broken
Diffie-Hellman asymmetric Shor broken
ECC asymmetric Shor broken
AES-128 symmetric Grover weakened
AES-256 symmetric Grover safe (doubled keys)
SHA-256 hash Grover weakened
SHA-512 hash Grover safe

The fault line is clear: asymmetric cryptography collapses, symmetric cryptography holds by enlarging the keys.

In summary

Shor's algorithm would break RSA, Diffie-Hellman and ECC in polynomial time on a quantum computer. Symmetric ciphers and hashes are only weakened by Grover, which halves the effective security: AES-256 keeps about 128 bits and remains safe. That is why the urgent migration concerns asymmetric cryptography, replaced by post-quantum cryptography.